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Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone are the favorites for the Best Actress Oscar, but is there room for surprises?



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The Best Actress race is one of the most exciting at the 2024 Oscars. Is Emma Stone up for a second Oscar, or is there still room for surprises?

At a time when the race to the Oscars seems to be more or less consolidated for both categories of secondary actorsit’s worth looking at the main actors where there is plenty of room for surprises.

After a analysis what happens in the category of Best Actor where the fight seems to be between Paul Giamatti (“The excluded ones”) It is Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”), it’s time to try to understand the race Best actress. Unlike Murphy, who assumed favoritism in July, the indecision in this category lasted more or less until the debut of “Poor Creatures” in Venice.

© Searchlight Studios

With the thunderous reception, Emma Stone quickly ascended to the top spot, where previously names such as Carey Mulligan (“Conductor”), Annette Bening (“Nyad”) It is Barrino Fantasy (“The Color Purple”) which ended up not being recognized.

The turnaround in the category occurred when Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) announced its intention to be considered as protagonistand not secondary, where she was the outstanding favorite. Like this, Lily Gladstone became the only one capable of threatening Emma Stone’s second Oscar.

In the first phase of season When the regional critics circles awarded their prizes, everything seemed to be going well for Gladstone. In addition to triumphing with the most important ones such as New York Film Critics Circle It’s from National Board of Review, Gladstone still managed to accumulate around 30 victories in the season. Not always being the critics’ favorite translates into an Oscar win and in some cases not even a appointmentsay it Ethan Hawke and its thirty-four trophies per “First Reformed”.


© 2023 Apple Studios

See like the “beating heart” from the latest film Martin Scorsese, Gladstone managed to impress critics and audiences. However, his type of performance is much more quietly lethal than what we are used to seeing awarded. On her side, Gladstone also has the narrative of being the first Native American nominated in the category of Best actress. The narrative would matter little if the performance of Gladstone was not one of the most acclaimed of the year, and it is worth bearing in mind that in a case like this it helps to strengthen your chances.

On the other hand, Emma Stone is the protagonist of second most nominated film at the ceremony, aims for his second statuette and which is the opposite of Gladstone, presenting a very eye-catching performance in which the work involved is perfectly identifiable. However, is there any urgency in giving a second Oscar to Emma Stone, still 35 years old?

When the television precursors began with the ceremony of Golden Globes, both Gladstone and Stone achieved a victory, as they competed in different categories (Drama and Comedy/Musical, respectively). That night Lily Gladstone did history and Emma Stone’s victory was received with great enthusiasm.

The following week, we had the first direct duel between the two on Critics’ Choice, which is voted on by critics and season enthusiasts. Generally, this award seeks to predict the Oscar and follows the favoritism of the time. In this case, Lily Gladstone remained firm in her odds of GoldDerby to win the Academy and this would be another easy victory on his CV. It was then that the unexpected happened, with Emma Stone being called to the stage to accept the award for Best Actress.


© 2023 Apple Studios

Since then, Gladstone has lost more and more space in the race. To make matters worse, the actress was left out of the list of BAFTA, which selects a popular Top 3 plus three names chosen by the jury. Strangely, Gladstone was unable to fit any of the options. Unlike the Globes and Critics’ Choice, there is a correlation between British Academy voters and Oscar voters. By failing here, Gladstone appears vulnerable with the British wing, one of the most influential today.

To prove that it is still competitive, Gladstone needs to win the Actors’ Union, something that may not be such an easy task, as subtlety is not always what is most appreciated by SAG members. However, they are a voting body that values ​​good storytelling and likes to vote for something that excites them.

It should be noted that last year’s Oscar winner, Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere at the Same Time”), only triumphed at SAG and the Golden Globes, and until then everything indicated that Cate Blanchett (“TÁR”) would win his third Oscar. In the midst of all this, a new question arises: What if Sandra Hüller Can you materialize the best year of your career in a historic Oscar victory?


© NOS Audiovisuais

Acclaimed in “Anatomy of a Fall”, Hüller could easily win the BAFTA, where the film did very well, and the actress become an unexpected rival for Gladstone and Stone. Like Gladstone, the German actress also has a weakness: she is not on the Actors Guild’s list of nominees. However, this was never really expected, as the voting body tends to resist appointing interpreters from another country, as happened with Antonio Banderas (“Pain and Glory”) or Penelope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”).

In addition to the possibility of Gladstone winning SAG, it is worth considering other hypotheses. In the past, the Union has surprised and rewarded people ignored by the Oscar, such as Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation”) or Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place”).

Does Margot Robbie can triumph here as a gesture of sympathy? Unlikely, since what led to those victories was the non-presence of the person who was seen as the race favorite, something very different in this case. After the unexpected victory of Jamie Lee Curtis the previous year, there are those who also considered the possibility of Annette Bening triumphing. Again, something that seems quite unfeasible, especially because “Nyad” doesn’t have the strength that “Everything on Every Side at the Same Time” had.

Among all the scenarios considered, today we believe that the most certain is that Emma Stone will win the BAFTA, and there is a great chance of triumphing at the SAG as well. If that happens, you can start making room on your bookshelf for a second Oscar. However, if Stone loses either of them, the uncertainty will only end when the envelope is finally opened at the night March 10th.

What’s your bet for Best Actress at the Oscars? And your favorite?

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